The creator of the stock-to-period (S2F) Bitcoin (BTC) cost model says that the upcoming block reward halving will determine if it lives or dies.

In a series of tweets on April 16, PlanB said that he is sticking by the Bitcoin cost increasing by "an order of magnitude" in the two years subsequently the May halving.

Analyst looks for primal insights from halving

"(In my opinion) #bitcoin 2022 halving will be like 2022 & 2022. As per S2F model I expect 10x price (guild of magnitude, not precise) 1-2 yrs after the halving," he wrote.

"Halving will exist make-or-pause for S2F model. I hope this halving will teach us more than about underlying fundamentals & network effects."

Stock-to-flow measures the issuance of new Bitcoins each cake against Bitcoin's existing supply, a method which has proven highly accurate in charting cost performance.

According to the model's latest incarnation, BTC/USD should striking $30,000 by the end of 2022.

Bitcoin stock-to-flow chart as of April 17. Source: PlanB/ Digitalik

BTC, macro "will non correlate forever"

Standing, PlanB responded to queries regarding Bitcoin's correlation to traditional markets. A key business organization among many traders is that a echo of March could still occur, BTC/USD shedding 60% in a day every bit stocks crashed.

Highlighting the Dow Jones, PlanB argued that current correlation was the result of the broader coronavirus crisis, and was not a permanent characteristic for Bitcoin:

"During crisis everything is correlated. What's adjacent is what's interesting. They volition non exist correlated forever (in my stance)."

Promising to throw out the stock-to-flow model birthday if it fails to evangelize as planned, he added that he nonetheless was non nervous about such a scenario occurring.

Recently, some well-known cryptocurrency figures have criticized the concept, arguing it is simply besides optimistic and has created a "cult" which reinforces its prognosis. As Cointelegraph reported, they include Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and a Bitcoin whale known as J0E007.

"To be clear: I expect S2F-price relationship to hold," PlanB confirmed.